CECP - Exploring regional impacts of climate policy in China

Health impacts are reduced most in the industrializing central provinces

Focusing on the 4% scenario, population-weighted PM2.5 exposure falls most in provinces where a CO₂ price shifts provinces on to a cleaner industrialization path.

2030 reduction in PM2.5 exposure in 4% scenario compared to `No policy` scenario, μg/m³
Population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 μg/m³ in 2030 under 4% scenario
Impacts are more limited along the coasts and in the less populated northern and western regions

Central provinces start with higher PM2.5 concentration in the base year in our simulation due to their economic composites and energy use, and they experience greater reduction in air pollution when climate policy is implemented. These provinces also happen to be centers of continued population growth and urbanization, so mitigating emissions in these areas has a large effect on health. By contrast, populous eastern coastal centers experience more limited reductions in air pollution exposure, as their energy systems are relatively cleaner and these provincial economies do not grow as rapidly as the central provinces. Mountainous and less populated provinces in the northern and western regions also experience less reduction in population-weighted air pollution exposure.