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CECP - Exploring regional impacts of climate policy in China

CO₂ policy impacts: Summary

To reach a CO₂ emissions peak before 2030 under the baseline economic growth assumption, China’s CO₂ intensity will need to fall by at least 4%/year through 2030 (left panel).

CO₂ emissions, Mt
Population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations, μg/m³
Share of non-fossil sources in primary energy, % *

* Modeling scenarios are given by China's 2030 pledges and in some cases do not automatically meet China's earlier pledges, such as the non-fossil primary energy target of 15% by 2020 made in Copenhagen.

Comparing across the policy scenarios

In the 4% scenario, China's climate pledge is achieved, with substantial co-benefits in the form of improved air quality. The non-fossil energy target is also reached, as its share reaches 23% in 2030 (right panel). To achieve near-term air quality goals, a CO₂ price will need to be accompanied by complementary measures to address air pollution formation, such as ammonia controls and end-of-pipe cleanup on remaining coal-fired power stations (middle panel).